12 theses for the age of accelerating technological change.
I am regularly asked what my fundamental findings and theses are from my work on technology-driven change processes in society and the economy. So it’s time for a non-exhaustive overview. 12 theses for politics/society and the economy.
(Reading time: 5 minutes)
1. the digital transformation is a transitional phenomenon into the age of ever faster change
Technological progress has been the driving force behind all improvements in human life since time immemorial. This technological progress is advancing exponentially. What we are experiencing as digital transformation is the first truly conscious perception of the growth of this technological progress.
The digital transformation is the beginning and transition to what I call the “age of accelerating technological change”. It is not a project, not a final process. For this reason, the term is misleading and misleading for many managers in today’s economy.
The aim is not, as is often claimed, to “master” the digital transformation, but to acquire the ability to anticipate and utilize rapid change in society and the economy.
The main challenge for society is to minimize the social damage caused by structural upheaval. The best way to do this is to anticipate this social damage in small steps.
Article on the thesis:
- Digital Transformation Model
- Why we need to replace the term digital transformation
- Digitalization is the beginning of a fundamental change
- Why and how industries and companies are caught up in the maelstrom of disruption
- Ray Kurzweil: The law of the accelerating returns
2. the perception of technological change determines our speed of action
The fact that the vast majority of people in their role in business and society have been so surprised by the emergence of “digital” possibilities is due to the fact that we have a hard time assessing any exponential growth.
This is because we have not yet been able to perceive the changes and effects of technological progress in the span of a human lifetime. This perception has only been possible for around 2-300 years. Before that, progress was exponential on balance, but the cycles of change took longer than a human lifetime.
As we are now living longer and the growth of progress itself is also growing, we see the effects much more directly. However, we were socialized under the premise of linear progress and were surprised by innovations as a result.
This leads us to overestimate the speed of development (based on the surprises) and underestimate the long-term changes due to socialization. This creates a psychological environment that is good for further surprises. In my opinion, this effect will only slowly wash out in 5 or 10 generations. By then, young people will no longer be able to relate to a world in which the exponential growth of progress was not visible.
Article on the thesis:
- The concept of “perpetual disruption”
- The 4th industrial revolution – such dangerous nonsense
- How time fools us when it comes to technology.
3. although we are the creators of technological progress, we have no influence on it.
The reason for this is simple: people constantly want to improve their situation. This applies to both small and large things. People also have a playful approach to new things. If something can be realized, it will be done. Regardless of whether it makes sense at the moment.
Sooner or later, all technology will prevail. Which direction this development will take is an ideological question and I am happy to leave it up to you.
In this far-sighted context, ethics must be seen as a temporary catalyst that ensures that society has the opportunity to tackle technological changes in a way that is good for it. This applies both to delaying and accelerating the introduction of new technology. Ethics is therefore used as an argument for both delay and acceleration.
Ethics change significantly over time, especially with regard to the use of technology.
Article on the thesis:
- Technology will kill us all – or will it?
- Will technology make or break us?
- Ethics don’t stand a chance – every technology will be used sooner or later
4. fast is the new big!
In a world that is defined and driven by rapid change, it is logical that the ability to adapt quickly and be resilient is a core competence. I consider this to be one of the basic prerequisites for success and satisfaction, both in private life and especially in business.
Standing still has always been expensive. What’s new is that it becomes expensive much faster.
Article on the thesis:
5 The agile company is the corporate form of the near future
As a result, the organization in companies must evolve. I maintain that the principles of the agile company will characterize successful companies in the future. They are quicker to change, can adapt better to new circumstances and are therefore ahead of their competitors.
Article on the thesis:
- The agile company
- Gaining unfair competitive advantages with the agile company
- 3 reasons why you should transform your company into an agile enterprise
- Company 4.0: The beginning of the end of the company as we know it?
6. the workplace as we know it will disappear. For the good of all.
However, the agile company also requires more responsibility and commitment from employees. In the course of the industrialization of the last two centuries, this responsibility and the necessary commitment was greatly reduced compared to the previous agrarian society.
All in all, this has led to a world of work that focuses primarily on the transfer of the employee’s time to the employer. This was and is not a good development for society. In the western world, this material security is predominantly paid for with personal satisfaction and enjoyment of life. In return, this system has maximized material security.
In the future, the traditional employment relationship will be weakened. This will further change society towards a more self-determined way of life. The softening of rigid employment relationships will benefit agile companies. There is no question that social security must continue to be guaranteed. After all, it is the basis for sustainable economic success.
Article on the thesis:
- The creeping end of the workplace as we know it
- What does the future of work look like?
- The fairy tale of job destruction
- Why technological progress creates more work
- A world without companies and without jobs and employees
- Job destruction: the business of scaremongering
7. rapid technological change requires different leadership qualities
While strictly hierarchically organized companies are based on command and control, agile companies try to delegate leadership to self-organized teams as much as possible. This requires a greater degree of emotional intelligence and cooperative leadership styles.
In the future, it will be necessary for managers to have a basic understanding of the technologies.
Article on the thesis:
- What leadership qualities are needed in digitalization?
- Digital leadership: what we can learn from Steve Wynn
- Forget the digital natives: rely on experience.
8 Our economic system will have to change fundamentally.
As the traditional production factor of labor, in the contingent nature of time, is becoming less and less important due to automation, it will be necessary to develop new political systems to guarantee social security. The concept of an unconditional income is one such possible system.
Other models will follow. Here too, politicians should concentrate on anticipating change and proactively developing new models. Under pressure to act from a position of crisis, this will not be possible without significant social cuts.
Article on the thesis:
- Digital basic income and unconditional revolution
- The unconditional basic income won’t work out that way
- Why companies should pay loss taxes
9. long-term action will continue to pay off in the future
Short-term, financially driven quarterly thinking prevents companies from making sensible and far-sighted decisions and investments.
Although far-sighted investment in new technologies is risky, it will always prevail. The better technology always wins in the medium term, even after “setbacks”.
Acting contrary to these technological “first principles” will always have an economic impact sooner or later.
Article on the thesis:
10. the majority of today’s companies will not be able to survive
Companies are not made to last forever. They are always a snapshot of what is economically feasible. A provisional answer to a demand.
The task of economic policy must not be to preserve companies that have strategically maneuvered themselves into the sidelines. Even if many jobs depend on it. Rather, the task should be to shape the framework conditions in such a way that companies must constantly move and develop. Incentives can be created for this, for example through taxation.
In addition, an environment must be created in which it is as easy as possible for new company founders to implement new ideas.
Article on the thesis:
- “Digital destruction” instead of “digital transformation”
- Even if it hurts: downsizing is key in digital transformation
11 Technological progress will fundamentally change democratic processes.
The new technological possibilities will make it possible to establish direct democracy as a serious civic duty. This enables a pluralistic, humanitarian society that can find very granular and concentrated solutions to factual issues.
This prevents political energy from being wasted on frontal and trench warfare, as we see today with the parties. In addition, lobbying is greatly reduced in a natural way.
Article on the thesis:
12 Our society must first learn how to deal with the huge amount of information available.
Access to global knowledge and “super up-to-date” news is a blessing and a curse for people. A blessing because information that is helpful is quickly available and injustices cannot be kept under wraps for long. The curse is that we are not yet used to dealing with data in this way. It is very difficult for most people to assess information in terms of its source, truthfulness and factual accuracy. People are correspondingly insecure when dealing with these vessels today.
Society will learn this skill through the new generations and learn to deal naturally with large amounts of information and rapid update cycles.
Article on the thesis:
- Why journalism is becoming more irrelevant.
- Digital transformation: overlooking the essentials in all the studies
- Content Marketing: Reach vs Relevance / Noise vs Signal
- Reply to Peter Diekmann’s: “Do we need an Internet Age of Enlightenment?
- Post-factual my ass: the age of 1000 untrustworthy sources
- À propos lying press: Why we suffer from undifferentiation
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