Google Glass and Apple Watch are among the most important products of recent months. Here’s why.

New technology is constantly being developed. At the moment I was writing these lines and at the moment you are reading them. The widespread adoption of a technology or a new product category by society does not happen continuously, but in waves. And not every wave is based on a single technology. Rather, it is an interplay of different technologies. All those working on the digital transformation should better understand how and which new products find their way into mass adoption. An attempt to explain.

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Technology Adoption LifeCycle

You are probably familiar with the Technology Adoption LifeCycle Model.

It is a bit outdated and attempts to predict the purchasing behavior of technological products. I think it has only limited validity in the current phase of perpetual disruption, as it does not take into account the interdependencies between different technologies.

The Next Big Thing

The question that drives you as an entrepreneur or decision-maker is: What is the next big thing? What is the real game changer that affects me?

The Technology Adoption LifeCycle Model acts as if there is a technology that leads to a product that will sooner or later be replaced by another technology.

However, the major upheavals in society and the economy over the last 20 years did not come about in this way. Instead, new technological products took on roles without which the big “waves” would not have been possible. Just like a soccer team, which needs various moves before the ball can be kicked into the goal.

I have identified the following product roles (not exhaustive / as food for thought):

Enabler

Enabler products or technologies are characterized by the fact that they are rather unspectacular in themselves, but enable other technologies to become game changers. One such technology is the mobile phone network, for example.

Although it has revolutionized telephony, telephony itself has become much less popular in society. Much more important, however, is the provision of nationwide Internet coverage. Without the mobile network, the smartphone as we know it would not have been able to celebrate its breakthrough. Comprehensive high-speed internet coverage is also extremely important for the Internet of Things, for example. If we want to continue along this technological path, we will still need to invest heavily in infrastructure. This is sometimes forgotten. Enabler products lay the foundation for other products.

Socializer

Another category of products are those that slowly introduce society to a new use of technology. Society has to get used to the fact that new technology is being used.

Google Glass and AppleWatch

Many people make fun of Google Glass and AppleWatch. They say it’s a flop. You can’t really do anything with it. As you can see from the title of the article, I see it a little differently. I believe that these products are preparing our society for wearables and their use to become socially acceptable.

Don’t think that’s already the case. Anyone who has ever spent 3 hours in a city with Google Glass knows that. So these “socializer” products help to make a technology “acceptable” for society in the first place. They are usually economic flops by design.

Prostheses

Another good example of “socializer products” are intelligent prostheses. I am fascinated by the developments in this area. There are already many very good prostheses that simply cannot yet be produced economically. But as soon as this is the case, these products will help disabled people. However, the impact of these products on society will be much greater: using artificial body parts will then become socially acceptable. And so we are moving socially from restoring the body to improving the body. This is an essential prerequisite for cybernetics in the future.

Game changer

We all know the game changers: iPhone, PC, airbag, Model S, etc. The list is long. Characteristic of game-changer products is that they do not really use new technology, but combine various existing technologies. For example, the smartphone as we know it today was only made possible by three technologies: battery technology, smaller and more powerful microprocessors and a nationwide mobile network. It is the combination that leads to game changers.

So when we are looking for the game changers of tomorrow, we have to ask ourselves which technologies we can combine to create such products? Which technologies are not yet advanced enough to produce certain applications?

We can derive corresponding answers from our wishes by imagining what problem we would like to see solved and then mentally going through the technologies required to do so. We usually recognize a technology that is not yet sufficiently developed.

Blocker

I refer to applications that stand in the way of innovation as blocker products. These are usually products that we have been using in a certain way for a very long time.

I see classic televisions as an example here. My parents’ generation, for example, used these devices in the same way for their entire lives. Modern televisions, the division into set-top box and display, time-shifted television is initially foreign to them. If such consumers have the choice, they opt for the “tried and tested” first.

This loss of value creation in old technology and traditional paradigms blocks or at least severely inhibits the spread of new technologies. Consumers only switch to new products when the new products offer significantly increased benefits.

Recognize developments

As I have often written, I believe that recognizing change in the social and economic environment should be one of the core competencies of entrepreneurs and business leaders.

The bad thing is: it’s not that simple. Not every technology, no matter how resounding it may seem, brings about change in itself. However, I believe that if you keep a close eye on new technologies and the way society adapts new technologies, you will be able to deduce where the major trends are heading and align your business activities accordingly. Be it corporate or investment decisions.