{"id":5119,"date":"2016-11-17T06:43:36","date_gmt":"2016-11-17T04:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.alainveuve.ch\/transformation-the-energy-sector-is-due\/"},"modified":"2016-11-17T06:43:36","modified_gmt":"2016-11-17T04:43:36","slug":"transformation-the-energy-sector-is-due","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alainveuve.ch\/en\/transformation-the-energy-sector-is-due\/","title":{"rendered":"Transformation: The energy sector is due"},"content":{"rendered":"

At the end of November, Switzerland will vote on an early exit from nuclear energy. In essence(!), the aim is to shut down the Swiss nuclear power plants, the oldest in the world that are still in operation, as quickly as possible. The initiative is very<\/del> popular at the moment and it is no secret that I support it. However, if you take a closer look at the situation, you realize that it is not needed at all. The energy sector is currently sliding into a disruption that the vast majority of players will not survive in the long term. And nuclear power plants are a big part of this misery. <\/p>\n

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(Reading time: 6 minutes)<\/em><\/p>\n

The decentralization of electricity storage will disrupt the entire industry<\/h3>\n

When I spoke to a GL member of an electricity supplier about the Tesla home battery<\/a> in May 2015, it quickly became clear that he had never heard of it. When I told him that I knew people in his supply area who had already reserved one, he laughed at me and said that you have to be allowed to install something like that first and, besides, it doesn’t really work. I had no idea about physics. It felt like the first time I spoke to representatives of the car industry about electric cars. <\/p>\n

\"Nuclear<\/p>\n

Well, three weeks ago, one of my neighbors had the first Tesla battery installed. The system is already working, but is still in, let’s say, “early adopter” mode. It is not yet a one-stop-shop solution. In my neighbor’s experience, the traditional electrical installers have no idea what works how and what is available on the market. <\/p>\n

Capacity vs. performance<\/h3>\n

When Albert R\u00f6sti (yes dear Germans, that really is his name), President of the SVP and lobbyist<\/a> for nuclear power in the referendum campaign, gives everyone a speech on the subject of capacity vs. performance, he is not fundamentally wrong.<\/p>\n

The growth in installed capacity in photovoltaics is breathtaking. And there are good indications that this is just the beginning. The problem that R\u00f6sti rightly points out is that we can’t buy anything from installed capacity for the time being. Every 12 hours or so it is night again and sometimes the sun is covered by clouds and in winter, just at the time of year when we need more electricity, the output is generally poorer due to the changing position of the sun. <\/p>\n

However, this observation is only correct if you ignore the fact that the home battery makes a large part of this shift in power possible. And yes, even if it is winter. <\/p>\n

I very much doubt that R\u00f6sti is so ill-informed. I therefore have no choice but to assume that there is simply a lack of will to tackle the further development of the electricity supply. Or that personal interests take precedence over progress. <\/p>\n

Either way, it is simply a disgrace for a country like Switzerland not to invest in new ways and technologies. Because money invested in old, dying technologies is always money lost. Investing money in new concepts and technologies always means new jobs and more business. Eco-technology is one of THE future economic fields. <\/p>\n

Of course, such investments always cost money. In the case of the energy industry, however, this is rather irrelevant, as it is always the citizens who end up paying for everything. Be it an investment in new technology and concepts, a misguided adherence to old technology or, as sarcastic as it sounds, the clean-up of a super-GAU. The initiative is only relevant because Switzerland would simply cease to exist in the event of a super-GAU. I don’t think the Swiss nuclear power plants are unsafe, otherwise I wouldn’t live here. But shutting down these old plants means more business, more innovation. More pioneering spirit. We Swiss are very good at that. Look at the history of the railroads over the last 150 years. Back to the energy sector: <\/p>\n

Home battery makes many energy providers obsolete<\/h3>\n

Tesla is by no means the only manufacturer to offer such a battery. There are various manufacturers who are already very advanced and offer comparable or even better products. One reason why these batteries are not becoming more widespread is that it is not yet economically viable to install them. Secondly, the energy providers, who have the most direct relationship with the customer, have zero interest in relying on batteries. Even when installing solar cells, the administrative tam-tam is enormous. A rogue who thinks evil. <\/p>\n

This is understandable in the first place. The batteries simply take business away from them. Because when a battery is installed, there is much less transaction. And transaction is what the energy providers earn from. <\/p>\n

Falling prices and increasing efficiency<\/h3>\n

Battery technology<\/a> is making rapid progress. On the one hand, batteries are becoming much cheaper. On the other hand, their efficiency is constantly increasing. Research funding in this area is exploding, especially now that the automotive industry has apparently also decided to move in this direction. <\/p>\n

Further developments will also take place in the photovoltaic sector. Panel prices have already collapsed in the last 10 years, which has put some European manufacturers under pressure. Tesla is also showing with SolarCity where the journey of photovoltaic panels will take us: To the integrated roof.<\/a> <\/p>\n

Tesla’s simple calculation: if they manage to develop a solar roof component that costs the same for the end user as a conventional new roof, practically all new roofs will be solar systems.<\/p>\n

It all sounds pretty crazy at the moment. Unreal. But if you take a closer look at the situation, there really is a path to it. This is another paradigm shift in the field of photovoltaics. While photovoltaic systems used to represent an additional investment for end users, they are now becoming an additional benefit of a replacement investment that is necessary anyway. <\/p>\n

Once this is possible, photovoltaic capacities will spread like wildfire. And reduce the investment bill for the battery and control system. This will make electricity unrivaled cheap for home consumers. Of course, we won’t cover the entire demand for electricity in areas with less sunshine and, very importantly, we won’t cover industrial consumers either. But we don’t have to per se. There are no all-or-nothing solutions. If we manage to significantly reduce the risk of nuclear accidents and CO2 emissions, that will be a lot better than the status quo. <\/p>\n

Smartgrid – The “Internet” for energy<\/h3>\n

It will be exciting when it is finally possible to exchange the energy stored in the batteries intelligently. This concept, which has so far been promoted under the name smart grid, will really bring out the advantages of decentralized electricity production and storage. This is because it also decentralizes storage, meaning that regions with little production can be supported by those with more production. <\/p>\n

The big losers<\/h3>\n

The big losers are the traditional energy providers. In recent decades, they have assumed that technological development would be gradual. And have calculated their projects accordingly for the long term. This was and is fundamentally wrong, as this development could have been foreseen. <\/p>\n

And that’s where they stand now. In Switzerland, as in the case of the electricity company Axpo<\/a>, they want to give away their nuclear power plants and are openly threatening to sue for damages if the initiative is accepted. This is not only indecent, but also completely absurd. They are already no longer in a position to earn money with the nuclear power plants. In addition, the costs of dismantling, disposal and risks are not internalized. They are therefore borne by the general public in any case. <\/p>\n

The owners, all of them cantons (equivalent to federal states), would be well advised to take on a stronger role in these energy companies such as Axpo. And insist on a rapid restructuring and change of strategy. <\/p>\n

Tipping point<\/h3>\n

From today’s perspective, such an energy transformation seems utopian. But make no mistake. There are tipping points in every development. <\/p>\n

This tipping point will be reached when it will be much easier and cheaper for consumers to produce a large proportion of their own energy. It will no longer be a question of ideology whether to install a solar roof, but a question of whether you can and want to afford anything else at all. My experience shows that the vast majority of people are immediately in favor of environmental protection if it is fun and\/or saves money. And frankly, that’s the right thing to do. Doing without is a step backwards. <\/p>\n

In order for this to catch on quickly, the right products need to be created. Tesla is at the forefront here. Tesla shareholders will decide today<\/a> (live stream at 22:00) whether they want to approve the merger\/purchase with SolarCity. This transaction, which looks like madness from a financial perspective<\/a>, is aimed precisely at this energy transformation. The potential, including the economic potential, is immense and can make Tesla the GE of the 21st century. <\/p>\n

Tesla has impressively demonstrated in the automotive industry that you can turn<\/a> an entire industry around with a fundamentally better product. This product is a solar roof with a battery that I can configure online and have installed directly by Tesla at a flat rate. Of all the providers, Tesla has the best chance of triggering a further transformation. The merger of Tesla and SolarCity is the first step on this path. A path that, mind you, will be long and rocky. And the losers in this game are well connected and interwoven in politics. So it will take a long time. In the end, the physically best option will prevail. That’s where Tesla comes in. <\/p>\n

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