Strong demand for answers to the question of the future<\/h3>\n
I have no other explanation for the fact that, as a non-futurist, I now regularly receive quite official inquiries about the concrete future of industries and even specific companies and therefore usually give corresponding presentations every two weeks.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, this is of course an honor in a way. On the other hand, I also find it dangerous. That’s because these are my assessments<\/em>. I take a systematic approach: as an outsider, I try to take as little of the usual view of an industry or company as possible and concentrate on the principles driving the development. <\/p>\n Subsequently, I mentally peel myself down to the first recognizable principle and try to deduce from the past development of this “principle” for the future how high the chances are for individual development scenarios. This is a mental and usually also a research exercise. The more time you invest, the more you can rule out various developments and the more robust the resulting theses become. In most cases, these do not really coincide with the current opinions of industry representatives. More on this later in the text. <\/p>\n As I do these things as a hobby and “side project”, the gap between what you could do and what I do is relatively large. However, it is usually enough to be able to point out various reliable scenarios and also to be able to make a certain defensible recommendation in the form of a presentation. I think that in this way I give many decision-makers valuable input, at least for them. (At least that’s what you, dear readers, write to me every day.) But that’s all there is to it. <\/p>\n When I was recently announced as a futurist for my presentation at an event in Berlin, I had to swallow a little empty. I may be many things, but I’m certainly not a futurist. I know enough futurists who do nothing other than pass on somewhat worn-out ideas of the future in presentations. That is certainly inspiring and visually stunning. And I know futurologists who deal with future challenges, mostly on a sociological level. As always, there are good and less good representatives. <\/p>\n However, the fact that I am asked so often about global drivers also shows how poorly this area is covered. And on closer inspection, this is true. Conventional management consultants repeat what they have picked up here and there in studies and what has become the consensus. These are “confirmation sermons”. But true consulting usually begins where it can cost you your mandate. <\/p>\n This sentence has shaped my entire work in recent years. It is said to have originally come from Elon Musk, but I doubt that. Because it plays a decisive role in the assessment of technological development and the reaction to it as a business. <\/p>\n Interestingly, many people are incapable of breaking out of their own analogies and looking at the available data behind them as they stand. Even if you always interpret in a certain way. It’s not that difficult. It’s just time-consuming. I would argue that most questions that arise for companies in strategic terms over the next two years can be answered with an astonishing degree of certainty. And these are always questions about the “future”. <\/p>\n You can predict the near future, if you like, much better than you think. Because things will probably turn out differently than you think. But that’s mainly because most people think in analogies. This effect is reinforced by the fact that many years of industry experience create a new horizon of reality, so to speak, which usually has little to do with the real situation. This has to do with the fact that we assimilate empirical values over time and consider them to be valid for the future. In reality, however, technical possibilities are constantly changing (and ever faster), thus devaluing these experiences. <\/p>\n Ray Kurzweil is known for having an astounding accuracy rate with his predictions. Part of it is show and marketing. But what he does is basically very simple: he looks for growth patterns in a technological development, projects them into the future and derives his predictions from them. This is neither rocket science nor divine foresight, but common sense and extrapolation. Based on the observation and conviction that technological progress as a whole is exponential. <\/p>\n A few weeks ago, I was approached by 4 people independently in one week: I should set up a think tank. I had to google it first. I can’t easily get my environment to agree to founding something else. But it’s certainly an interesting idea. <\/p>\n And that made me think a little further in terms of this futurology and the great demand from companies. What if I, or even better we, could invest much more time in this data research, aggregate so much data and read patterns from it that we would be able to make very short-term, extremely reliable, accurate predictions. <\/p>\n For example, the development of electricity prices. Who would think that improved glass production processes and sharply falling battery prices would be the drivers behind ever lower electricity prices in the future? And that accounting rules will also play an important role. (Please put clean lines of reasoning in the comments field 😊 – I’d be happy to take credit for the best one) <\/p>\n If you take a consistent approach and put in the necessary work (and money), I think you can achieve extremely good results. These results are worth hard cash for companies. So much for the business part. <\/p>\n I think that would be a revolution for futurology. Because it shifts the sections of the line equation<\/a>. And it would bring futurology further into the realm of science (which, with all due respect, it is not de facto today in my opinion) <\/p>\n And anyone reading here will guess that I’m less interested in setting up a consulting business than in establishing the whole thing as a kind of platform for micro-questions\/answers about the immediate future in companies. Which would only make the whole undertaking even more complicated. But after all, you don’t live on quick wins… <\/p>\n So if anyone has outstanding big data \/ statistics \/ mathematics \/ desk research skills and a desire to break new ground here, we should talk. We already have machine learning in-house. And a desire for the future. In every respect. <\/p>\n Artikel auf Social Media teilen:<\/p>\n<\/div>![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.alainveuve.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/Fotolia_106148012_S.jpg\")
<\/p>\nThe futurist<\/h3>\n
“If a trend becomes obvious – you are too late”<\/h3>\n
Exponential gizmo<\/h3>\n
ThinkTank<\/h3>\n
Futurology 10.0<\/h3>\n